Nvidia’s Historical Post‑Earnings Performance and What It Signals Ahead of Tomorrow’s Report
Overview
Nvidia reports earnings tomorrow after the market close, and expectations are once again sky‑high. Options markets imply a sizable swing, while historical data shows Nvidia’s post‑earnings moves often cluster in a narrower range than investors assume. Understanding how NVDA typically trades after results can help frame what’s realistically possible this time around.
What the Options Market Is Pricing In
Nvidia is staring at one of the largest expected market‑cap swings in history. According to Reuters, options imply a move large enough to swing roughly $320 billion in value around the event (Reuters).
Unusual Whales data shows the expected move for this earnings event is 6.52% (+/‑ $12.03), in line with but slightly elevated relative to the stock’s typical earnings-week volatility (Unusual Whales).
Historical Performance: What the Data Shows
Nvidia’s earnings reactions tend to be dramatic in the media, but the actual price moves are surprisingly contained on average. Unusual Whales reports that across the past eight quarters, NVDA’s average one‑day post‑earnings move is just +1.42%.
Key Patterns From the Past Two Years
1. Frequent EPS Beats but Mixed Stock Reactions
Nvidia has beaten consensus most quarters, but shares haven’t always rallied afterward. Examples from Unusual Whales data:
- Q4 FY2024 (Nov 2024): Beat by $0.03; stock fell 6.77% the next day.
- Q1 FY2024 (May 2024): Beat by $0.03; stock rose nearly 20%.
- Q2 FY2025 (Aug 2025): Missed by $0.01; stock slid nearly 6%.
The market often reacts less to the reported quarter and more to guidance and AI‑demand commentary.
2. Large Implied Moves, Smaller Actual Moves
Nvidia frequently trades below its implied move, creating a pattern where options premiums decay after earnings. Across several of the last eight quarters, implied moves of 7%–9% were followed by realized moves of 1%–6%.
3. A Pattern of Pre‑Earnings Rallies Followed by Cooling Nvidia often rallies into earnings but fades afterward—even on strong results. Several recent examples show negative 1‑day and 1‑week moves despite beats.